When Chicago Bears travel to face the Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland on Monday Night FootballNorthwest Stadium, the odds are tighter than ever. Jeremy Cluff of The Arizona Republic predicts a 31‑30 win for Washington, hinging on a quarterback duel that could turn the game into a scoring sprint.
Why This Game Matters
The Bears sit at 2‑2 while the Commanders are 3‑2, but the real story is the narrative each team is trying to write. For Chicago, it’s a chance to shed the label of NFC North cellar‑dweller after three straight last‑place finishes (2022‑2024). For Washington, the matchup is the latest chapter in a resurgence that has produced a perfect 2‑0 home record this season and a four‑game MNF winning streak that dates back to the franchise’s "Redskins" era in 2020.
Statistical Snapshot
- Series record since 1932: Washington leads 28‑25‑1.
- Both teams rank in the middle of the pack on points per drive, but the projected total of 61 points is the highest for Week 6.
- Chicago’s sack rate dropped from 10.00% in 2024 to 4.55% in 2025 – now 10th best league‑wide.
- Washington’s offense is 5th in EPA (Expected Points Added) after a Week 5 rally from a 10‑0 deficit.
- Both quarterbacks have thrown for over 2,500 yards this season, but Daniels boasts a 71.5 passer rating versus Williams’ 68.2.
Key Players and Match‑up
Jayden Daniels enters the game after engineering a comeback win over the Los Angeles Chargers. His mobility and ability to extend plays have become his trademark, and the Commanders’ offensive line has given him a 95% protection rate in the past two weeks.
Opposite him, Caleb Williams finally looks less like a sack‑magnet. The Bears’ revamped front seven, now coached by Dennis Allen, has cut his pressure to a three‑quarter‑of‑a‑second pocket.
Both signal‑callers are still raw – Daniels is in his second NFL season, while Williams is a rookie thrust into a rebuild. Expect a duel that’s more about who makes the smarter decisions under pressure than raw arm talent.
Coaching Angles
First‑year head coach Ben Johnson has already shown he can get the Bears to win Two straight after opening the season 0‑2. His emphasis on ball security and limiting turnovers has paid off – Chicago has committed just three giveaways in their last five games.
On the other sideline, Washington’s staff leans heavily on its veteran offensive coordinator, who has crafted play‑calls that exploit mismatches against the Bears’ secondary, which ranks 28th in opponent passing yards per game.
Betting Outlook and Odds
Sportsbooks have the Commanders listed as slight favorites at -110, with an over/under set at 61.5 points. The narrow 31‑30 projection from Cluff reflects the belief that both offenses will click, but the Bears’ improving protection could keep the game within a field goal.
Sharp bettors are watching the spread closely. If Washington misses a field goal in the fourth quarter, the Bears could swing the line with a late drive, a scenario that has pushed the money line on the over to +130.
What to Watch On Game Night
1. **Third‑down efficiency** – Both teams have struggled to convert beyond the 10‑yard mark. A key third‑down conversion could swing momentum.
2. **Turnover margin** – The Bears are +2 in the turnover battle this season; a single pick could be the difference in a one‑point game.
3. **Special teams** – Washington’s kicker has hit 91% of field goals from inside 45 yards, while Chicago’s punter ranks top‑five in net yards. Field position will matter.
Future Implications
If Washington extends its MNF streak, the franchise could finally shed the “prime‑time curse” that haunted them for decades. A win would also cement the team’s status as a legitimate NFC East contender, possibly reshaping the playoff picture as early as Week 8.
For Chicago, keeping the momentum alive might be the catalyst needed to break the three‑year drought of finishing at the bottom of the division. A victory would put the Bears at 3‑2, matching the Commanders and setting up a potential showdown for the wild‑card spots later in the season.
Frequently Asked Questions
How likely is a high‑scoring game between the Bears and Commanders?
Both offenses rank in the top half of the league for points per drive, and the projected total of 61.5 points is the highest for Week 6. Historically, their last three meetings have all exceeded 50 points, so a high‑scoring affair is very probable.
What does the quarterback matchup mean for the outcome?
Jayden Daniels brings mobility and a strong supporting line, while Caleb Williams finally has a pocket that protects him better than last year. The game will likely hinge on who makes better reads under pressure and who capitalizes on third‑down opportunities.
Will the Bears’ improved sack rate be enough to slow Washington?
The reduction from 10.00% to 4.55% is significant, moving Chicago into the top‑ten for pass protection. However, Washington’s offensive line still gives Daniels a 95% protection rate, so the gap may be narrower than the stats suggest.
What impact does this game have on each team’s playoff chances?
A win pushes Washington to 4‑2, solidifying its hold on the NFC East and keeping the MNF streak alive. For Chicago, a victory would bring them level at 3‑2 with the Commanders and reignite hopes of breaking their three‑year division‑bottom streak.
Are there any betting trends worth noting?
Sharp bettors are watching the over/under; with both teams averaging over 30 points per game, the +130 line on the over is attracting attention. The spread is tight, and a late‑game field goal could swing the final result, making the moneyline a tempting play.